There's Reason For Concern Over Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002559) Massive 26% Price Jump - Simply Wall St News

Stock Analysis

The Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002559) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. Looking further back, the 19% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.8x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Machinery industry in China, where the median P/S ratio is around 2.9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool

Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to only keep up with the broader industry, which has keeping the P/S in line with expectations. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 8.6% gain to the company's revenues. Still, revenue has barely risen at all in aggregate from three years ago, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 24% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool's P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Manufactures and sells metal forming machine tools in China and internationally.